Classic meteorology says the sea breeze starts near shore and is strongest there, but not here. Typical summer pressure breeze is southwest, but the cold lake slows it down and then cancels it out. We usually see a “convergence zone” somewhere between 1 to 3 miles offshore. Closer to shore the southwesterly prevails, while further out the southeast thermal prevails. As you leave the harbor in the morning, if the southwesterly weakens as you get out, you know what to expect. In any case, stay away from the lighter convergence zone and go toward whichever breeze is dominant. If your racecourse is far enough offshore to start in the southeasterly, then early in the day expect better pressure further out (left upwind, right downwind). However, later in the day, after the thermal has matured, expect some right shift trend, so be careful about getting hung out left. The most likely direction for thermal to fill in is 105 to 115 degrees, and may end up 130 to 140 degrees or greater by late afternoon.